I get a lot of queries regarding ckwl status. These involve questions like - "I got a tatkal ticket of WL 17 in sleeper on train 2833. Today is 24th Feb 2010. and my train is on 26th Feb.? Total tatkal seats is 229. Is it likely to be confirmed?"
It's tough to answer such a question. There are different factors to keep in mind.
1. The route in which the train runs. Some routes, like Chennai - Bangalore route, are busy. Cancellations are probably low here. You are more likely to get a CKWL status if you book a train in a busy route.
2. The day for which the ticket is booked. Tatkal ticket bookings are high on Fridays and Sundays. If you look at tatkal bookings in a busy route like Bangalore <--> Ernakulam, you will find that booking is high on Fridays for Bangalore --> Ernakulam and high on Sundays for Ernakulam --> Bangalore.
3. Which train are you travelling on? If you've booked tatkal tickets for a train which is at a convenient time for most people (for eg. Island express at 9:45 pm is convenient for those going from Bangalore --> Ernakulam), then the likelihood of getting a CKWL status is higher compared to getting a CKWL status on a less conveniently timed train ( There's a train at 5:15 train from Bangalore --> Ernakulam. Not convenient because most people can't get out of office that early).
4. Occassionally the railways add extra coaches to a train when there's a big waiting list. Chances are high that your CKWL status becomes confirmed in that case. I assume this is more likely to happen during the rush season (summer holidays?).
- Some people cancel their tickets at the very last moment.
- Some people forget to cancel their tickets
I have faced situations where a CKWL 11 did not get converted to a confirmed ticket. But I've also faced situations where my CKWL 30 ticket got confirmed. My advice to you is that unless you have a very high CKWL status, say CKWL 50, you ought to wait till the last moment. You won't get much if you cancel a tatkal ticket anyway. It's worth a shot.
Mind you, this advice is free and does not come with any guarantees. I'm not responsible if you wait for a ticket and it does not get confirmed. YMMV :P